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Journal of Nursing ›› 2021, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (24): 42-50.doi: 10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2021.24.042

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Construction and Validation of Risk Prediction Model of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Community-dwelling Elderly Hypertensive Patients

LU Jing-yu, YANG Lian-zhao, CHEN Ling, YANG Yong   

  1. School of Nursing, Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning 530200, China
  • Received:2021-04-16 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2022-01-11

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Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in community-dwelling elderly patients with hypertension and to construct a risk prediction model. Methods A convenience sampling procedure was used to select 345 community-dwelling elderly patients with hypertension and they were divided into MCI group (n=197) and non-MCI group (n=148). The general information, social support, medication compliance, sleep disorder, with anxiety or not and with depression or not in the two groups were compared. A risk model was constructed by binary logistic regression and the area under the ROC curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to validate the prediction effect. Totally 146 community-dwelling elderly hypertensive patients from Qingxiu District of Nanning City participated in the validation of the prediction effect of the model. Results Factors including hypertension grading (OR=2.699), education background (technical secondary school or senior high school)(OR=0.075), education background (college or undergraduate)(OR=0.044),complicated with diabetes (OR=4.321), duration of hypertension (OR=3.539), history of stress in the past year (OR=4.709), smoking (OR=2.703), exercise (high frequency)(OR=0.140), occasional reading (OR=0.409), regular reading (OR=0.173), the total score of social support (OR=0.939), sleep disorder (OR=2.283), and good medication compliance (OR=0.437) were included into the construction of risk model. The area under the ROC curve was 0.795 with a sensitivity of 0.584, a specificity of 0.919, Youden index of 0.507, positive predictive value of 84.46% and negative predictive value of 65.52%. Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.234). Conclusion The constructed model in the study includes factors of hypertension grading, education background (technical secondary school/senior high school, college/university), complicated with diabetes, duration of hypertension, history of stress in the past year, smoking, regular exercise, occasional or regular reading, the total score of social support, sleep disorder, and good medication compliance and the model has certain value in predicting the risk of MCI in community-dwelling elderly patients with hypertension.

Key words: community, senile hypertension, mild cognitive impairment, risk prediction model

CLC Number: 

  • R473.2
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