Abstract: Objective To To investigate the risk factors of discharge of patients with indwelled double J tubes after upper urinary tract calculi operation, and establish a logistic regression prediction model. Methods A total of 435patients with indwelled double J tubes after upper urinary tract calculi operation in a hospital in Guangzhou from January to December in2020 were selected. The patients were divided into positive group with ureteral stent-related symptoms (n=207) and negative group without symptoms (n=228) and the clinical indicators of the both group were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish a risk prediction model for discharged patients with indwelled double J tubes after upper urinary tract calculus surgery, and the prediction effect of the model was verified by ROC curve. Results Five independent risk factors including daily water intake, hypertension, diabetes, pre-operative urinary leukocyte numbers and stone residue were identified according to the stepwise regression analysis. We also constructed a risk prediction model base on five factors. The AUC of this model was 0.906, and when the critical value was -0.17, the sensitivity and the specificity were 0.842 and 0.832, respectively. Conclusion With good predictive effect, the prediction model constructed in the study has clinical application value and provides reference to predict the discharge risk of patients with indwelled double J tubes after upper urinary tract calculus surgery.

Key words: upper urinary calculi, double J tube, ureteral stent tube, prediction model, symptoms associated with ureteral stents