腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长预测模型的构建

陈元杏; 郭艳; 王宏浩; 刘杲

doi:10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2025.07.070

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护理学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7) : 70-75. DOI: 10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2025.07.070

临床护理※外科护理

腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长预测模型的构建

陈元杏^a, 郭艳^b, 王宏浩^a, 刘杲^a

作者信息 +

Construction of prediction model for prolonged hospital stay in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical surgery for colon cancer

CHEN Yuanxing^a, GUO Yan^b, WANG Honghao^a, LIU Gao^a

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

目的制定腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长的预测模型。方法按照7∶3的比例随机将369例患者分为建模组和验证组。应用建模组分析患者住院时间延长的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型。以受试者工作特征曲线（ROC曲线）法分析模型效能。采用验证组患者验证模型。结果腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长预测模型：Logit（P/1-P）=-0.155+0.321×年龄+0.067×BMI+0.092×术前肠梗阻+0.128×手术时间+0.185×术后医院获得性肺炎+-0.201×围术期应用非甾体抗炎药。基于建模集样本构建的住院时间延长预测模型的预测效能：ROC-AUC为0.871。验证集样本的分析结果：ROC-AUC为0.863。Delong检验比较建模集和验证集所得ROC-AUC,P=0.779。结论本研究构建的腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长预测模型,有较高的预测效能。

Abstract

Objective To develop a prediction model of prolonged hospital stay (PLOS) in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical surgery for colon cancer. Method A total of 369 patients were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group at a ratio of 7:3. The modeling group was used to analyze risk factors of PLOS and establish a risk prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using ROC curve, followed by external validation in the validation group. Results The prediction model for PLOS in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical resection for colon cancer was as follows: Logit (P/1-P)=-0.155 + 0.321 × age +0.067 × BMI + 0.092 × preoperative intestinal obstruction + 0.128 × surgery time + 0.185 × postoperative hospital acquired pneumonia + -0.201 × perioperative use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The predictive performance of the model constructed from the modeling group demonstrated a ROC-AUC of 0.871. Validation set analysis yielded a ROC-AUC of 0.863. DeLong’s test comparing ROC-AUC values between modeling and validation group showed no statistically significant difference (P=0.779). Conclusion The PLOS prediction model constructed in this study demonstrates high predictive efficiency for patients undergoing laparoscopic radical surgery for colon cancer.

导出引用

陈元杏, 郭艳, 王宏浩, 刘杲. 腹腔镜下结肠癌根治术后患者住院时间延长预测模型的构建[J]. 护理学报. 2025, 32(7): 70-75 https://doi.org/10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2025.07.070

CHEN Yuanxing, GUO Yan, WANG Honghao, LIU Gao. Construction of prediction model for prolonged hospital stay in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical surgery for colon cancer[J]. Journal of Nursing. 2025, 32(7): 70-75 https://doi.org/10.16460/j.issn1008-9969.2025.07.070

中图分类号： R473.6

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